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Outpaced by Drought: Weak Local Adaptation and Limited Potential for Drought Adaptation in a Deciduous Conifer
Beth A Roskilly1,2, Martin R Henry1,3, Brandon M Lind1,4
1Forest and Conservation Sciences University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada.
Evolutionary Applications
|July 19, 2026
Summary
Western larch populations show limited potential for drought adaptation. Genetic variation for drought resistance is low, and drought conditions reduce differentiation in growth and bud set, suggesting challenges for future forest resilience.
Area of Science:
- Forestry science
- Ecology
- Genetics
Background:
- Increasing drought frequency and intensity pose significant threats to forest ecosystems globally.
- Understanding tree species' adaptive capacity is crucial for predicting forest responses to climate change and informing management strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the phenotypic and genomic variation in western larch (Larix occidentalis) populations for drought adaptation potential.
- To assess the drivers of landscape genomic variation and their relationship with climate and geography.
Main Methods:
- A common garden experiment with 52 western larch populations under two drought treatments.
- Analysis of pooled exome-sequence capture data from an adult provenance trial (44 populations).
- Evaluation of population differentiation, clinal associations, and landscape genomic variation.
Main Results:
- Low population differentiation for drought resistance was observed.
- Drought treatments reduced population differentiation for growth and bud set, and weakened clinal associations for growth.
- Landscape genomic variation was primarily explained by neutral genetic structure, with limited influence from climate or geography.
Conclusions:
- Western larch exhibits weak local adaptation to drought.
- Reduced genetic variation under drought conditions suggests limited adaptive potential for western larch in the face of future drought.
- Forest management strategies may need to consider assisted migration or other interventions to enhance resilience.
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