[Quantifying the Flow Path of Carbon Sequestration Services and Optimizing the Spatial Pattern of Supply-demand...

Carbon sequestration services， as important ecosystem regulation services， are of great significance in achieving regional carbon balance and carbon neutrality goals. This study takes the Xinjiang Region as the research object， constructs a quantitative identification framework for the supply and demand flow of carbon sequestration services， and systematically evaluates the spatial pattern and driving mechanism of carbon sequestration services. Firstly， Net Ecosystem Productivity （NEP） was used as the core indicator of carbon sequestration service supply. By combining energy consumption and population data to estimate carbon sequestration demand， a carbon supply-demand ratio index was constructed， revealing the spatiotemporal changes and structural imbalances in regional carbon storage and emissions from 2005 to 2020. Using wind field data to simulate the flow path and flow of carbon services， the spatial transmission network characteristics of carbon services were analyzed. Based on the Bayesian belief network model， the key driving factors for the supply and demand of carbon sequestration services were screened， and the scientific division of carbon sequestration functional zones was achieved. The research results indicate that： ① Carbon supply presented a stable spatial pattern of "high in the north and low in the south，" and carbon storage experienced a dynamic process of first decreasing and then increasing. Carbon emissions continued to grow rapidly and were highly concentrated in urban industrial areas， leading to an exacerbation of supply-demand imbalance. ② Carbon services flowed along the main wind direction from high-value carbon sink areas to demand areas， forming a clear "source sink" spatial structure. ③ The Bayesian belief network sensitivity analysis showed that vegetation coverage， human footprint index， and evapotranspiration were the main influencing factors of carbon sequestration service supply. The division of priority protection zones， buffer zones， and restoration zones for carbon sequestration within the region provides a scientific basis for regional ecological protection and carbon management. The research results can provide scientific support and quantitative basis for the spatial optimization configuration of carbon sequestration services and the formulation of ecological policies in the Xinjiang Region.