[Impact Effects and Mechanisms of New Quality Productive Forces on the Synergistic Effects of Pollution Reduction and...

The development of new quality productive forces injects fresh impetus into achieving synergistic governance of pollution and carbon reduction. Based on panel data for 278 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2012 to 2022， this study quantitatively measures city-level new quality productive forces and the degree of pollution-carbon synergistic effects and analyzes their spatiotemporal evolution. Employing a suite of econometric methods， we systematically explore the impact and mechanisms of new quality productive forces on synergistic effects. The main findings are as follows： ① New quality productive forces significantly enhanced synergistic effects of pollution and carbon mitigation， and this conclusion remained robust after a series of sensitivity tests. ② New quality productive forces improved synergistic effects primarily through three mediation pathways： independent mediation by advanced manufacturing agglomeration （contributing 73.47% of the total indirect effect）， independent mediation by energy structure optimization （24.49%）， and a sequential chain pathway： advanced manufacturing agglomeration→energy structure optimization （2.04%）. ③ The impact of new quality productive forces was heterogeneous， being more pronounced in non-resource-based cities， environmentally prioritized cities， and cities with high factor allocation efficiency. ④ New quality productive forces exhibited pronounced spatial spillover effects， not only strengthening local synergistic effects but also enhancing those in neighboring regions. Overall， this research not only reveals the mechanism by which new quality productive forces promote synergistic pollution and carbon mitigation but also provides empirical insights for advancing new quality productive forces and enhancing coordinated low-carbon urban governance.