[Analysis of the Synergy Effect of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction in China's Provincial Regions and its...

Promoting the synergistic development of pollution control and carbon emission reduction is the core strategy of China's ecological civilization construction. The study explores the spatial and temporal evolution of the synergistic development of pollution and carbon reduction in 30 Chinese provinces （data for Taiwan， Hong Kong， Macau， and Tibet is currently unavailable） from 2005 to 2022 and the influencing factors by using a combination of coupled coordination models， kernel density estimation， Lasso regression， and XGBoost-SHAP. The study found that， firstly， the level of synergistic pollution reduction and carbon reduction in all provinces in China was generally on the rise， with a spatial pattern of "high in the east and low in the west，" and there was a significant positive spatial correlation. Second， Energy consumption was a key constraint variable for synergistic development， and its inhibitory effect was significantly negative. Compared with that in the high-coordinated regions， its inhibitory effect on the low-coordinated regions was more prominent. Third， technological innovation and industrial development optimization positively promoted synergistic effects， while the effects of economic development， green development， and population size showed complex mechanism of stage-specific characteristics. The results of the study reveal the key drivers and constraints of the synergistic development of pollution reduction and carbon reduction and provide important empirical support and policy insights for the formulation of regional differentiated synergistic control strategies and the optimization of resource allocation in order to achieve the goal of "double carbon."