[Analysis of Spatio-temporal Changes and Driving Factors of Carbon Storage in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone...

Accurate assessment and prediction of the impact of land use change on carbon storage is of great significance for realizing the dual carbon target. Based on land use data， the spatio-temporal changes of carbon storage in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone from 1990 to 2020 were evaluated using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs （InVEST） model. Then， the impacts of land use transition on carbon storage change were quantified by using the Geo-information Tupu method. Coupled with the patch-generating land use simulation （PLUS） model and the InVEST model， the carbon storage of the study area in 2040 under the natural development scenario， farmland protection scenario， and ecological protection scenario were predicted. Finally， the Geodetector model was used to analyze drivers of the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results showed that： ① The total carbon storage of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone showed a continuous decreasing trend from 1990 to 2020， with a net decrease of 9.89 Tg in 30 years. ② From 1990 to 2020， the conversions of land use in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone resulted in an increase of 3.66 Tg in carbon storage， of which conversions of farmland to wetland， farmland to forestland， built-up land to farmland， and grassland to forestland contributed 26.39%， 24.43%， 17.68%， and 15.84%， respectively. At the same time， the conversions of land use resulted in a decrease of 13.55 Tg in carbon storage， among which the conversions of farmland and forestland to built-up land contributed the most， accounting for 49.01% and 22.27%， respectively. ③ From 2020 to 2040， the total carbon storage of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone under the natural development scenario， farmland protection scenario， and ecological protection scenario will decrease by 8.53 Tg， 6.61 Tg， and 4.06 Tg， respectively. ④ Population density and nighttime light intensity were main driving factors of spatial differentiation of carbon storage. Interaction effects between driving factors enhanced their explanatory power of spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results of this study can provide scientific reference for ecological protection and sustainable development of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone.