[Multi-scenario Simulation and Ecological Environmental Effects Analysis of "Production-Living-Ecological Spaces" in...

Based on the five phases of land use data in the Yangtze River Basin in 2000， 2005， 2010， 2015， and 2020， the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the "production-living-ecological spaces" and the ecological environment quality in the Yangtze River Basin over the past 20 years were analyzed by means of the land use transfer matrix and ecological environment effect model. Taking 2020 as the benchmark， the FLUS-Markov model was used to simulate and predict the spatial distribution pattern of the "production-living-ecological spaces" in the Yangtze River Basin and the changes in the future ecological environment under the three scenarios of natural development， cultivated land protection， and ecological protection from 2030 to 2050. The results show that： ① From 2000 to 2020， the agricultural production space continued to shrink at an average annual rate of 0.26%， decreasing by 25 890 km2， of which 10.10%， 13.67%， 31.97%， and 26.78% were converted into green ecological space， water ecological space， urban living space， and industrial and mining production space， respectively. The ecological environment quality index decreased from 0.521 86 to 0.520 56 and then rose to 0.522 07， being at the medium to upper level. ② Under the ecological protection scenario， the cultivated land in 2050 still decreased， but the rate of decrease was reduced， and the outward expansion of living space and industrial and mining production space was effectively curbed； the ecological environment quality index of 0.523 07 was better than those of the natural development and cultivated land protection scenarios， which was conducive to giving full play to the environmental benefits of the Yangtze River Basin. ③ Under each simulation scenario， the main distribution positions of the "production-living-ecological space" and the distribution of ecological environment quality grades in the Yangtze River Basin from 2030 to 2050 basically remained unchanged. This study can provide theoretical and data support for the evaluation of land use changes and their ecological effects in the Yangtze River Basin and provide a scientific guide for the optimal layout and rational allocation of land space in the Yangtze River Basin and the promotion of ecological civilization construction in the Yangtze River Basin.