Climate Crisis in the Mediterranean Hotspot: Conservation Challenges for Endangered Salamanders in Southern Türkiye

Amphibians are particularly vulnerable to climate change, with many species projected to experience significant reductions in their current distributional ranges due to ongoing climatic impacts. Mediterranean biodiversity hotspots, characterised by exceptionally high species richness, including rare and endemic species, are especially susceptible. Here, we employed an ensemble of eight advanced distribution modelling algorithms to model and explain the spatial distribution of the seven closely related salamander species and one documented hybrid lineage, all belonging to the genus Lyciasalamandra, within a Mediterranean hotspot in Türkiye. We explored how their spatial distributions are linked to both climate and anthropogenic activities and examined the projected changes in suitable habitat. Projected habitat suitability maps, under various climate change scenarios for the coming decades, indicate a severe decline in the quality and extent of habitats for Lycian salamanders, raising concerns about their long-term survival. Overall, our findings emphasise the urgency of species-specific conservation actions that prioritise the protection of microrefugia and the maintenance of ecological connectivity to enhance the long-term persistence of Lycian salamanders under accelerating climate change.