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Achieving long-term success in irrigation commons
Ulrich J Frey1, Atul Pokharel2
1Department of Environmental Systems Sciences, University of Graz, Graz, Austria.
Plos One
|July 21, 2026
Summary
Good institutional design, including fair rules and regular meetings, predicts the long-term performance and persistence of farmer-managed irrigation systems, especially with external support. This study analyzed 218 systems in Nepal over three decades.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Engineering
- Environmental Science
- Development Studies
Background:
- Longitudinal data is scarce for evaluating irrigation system performance.
- Previous studies identified many factors but lacked long-term predictive power analysis.
- Understanding predictors of long-term irrigation system success is crucial for sustainable water management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify characteristics predicting long-term performance and persistence of irrigation systems.
- To analyze the relative predictive power of initial system attributes on survival over 16-37 years.
- To leverage a unique longitudinal dataset for robust analysis.
Main Methods:
- Created a unique longitudinal dataset of 218 community-based irrigation systems in Nepal.
- Applied state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for method independence.
- Analyzed system attributes against performance and survival data spanning three decades.
Main Results:
- Farmer-managed systems with external support and user-leaders demonstrated superior performance.
- Long-term survival was linked to fair rules, regular member meetings, and occasional external assistance.
- Effective institutional design consistently emerged as a strong predictor.
Conclusions:
- Good institutional design is a key factor for the long-term success of irrigation commons.
- External support and user involvement enhance irrigation system performance and persistence.
- Longitudinal analysis provides critical insights into sustainable irrigation management.
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