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Partner Stalking as a Possible Risk Factor for Subsequent Intimate Partner Violence Reported to New Zealand Police
Jordan Tomkins1, Lisa Tompson1, Devon L L Polaschek1
1University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.
Journal of Interpersonal Violence
|July 21, 2026
Summary
Partner stalking does not uniquely predict intimate partner violence (IPV) recurrence. While initially associated with IPV, its predictive power diminishes when controlling for other common risk factors in police assessments.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Forensic Psychology
- Public Health
Background:
- Effective intimate partner violence (IPV) response relies on accurate risk assessment for intervention.
- Current IPV guidelines highlight partner stalking as a significant risk factor for recurrence and severe outcomes.
- Empirical evidence supporting partner stalking's predictive role in IPV recurrence is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether partner stalking predicts IPV recurrence.
- To determine if partner stalking predicts physical IPV recurrence.
- To assess the predictive utility of partner stalking when controlling for other known risk factors.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 1,126 intimate partner violence cases reported to New Zealand Police.
- Examination of partner stalking as a predictor for any IPV recurrence and physical IPV recurrence over 12 months.
- Statistical modeling to control for other commonly assessed risk factors in police risk assessments.
Main Results:
- Partner stalking initially predicted any IPV recurrence, regardless of severity or type.
- This predictive significance was lost when controlling for other assessed risk factors.
- Partner stalking did not predict physical IPV recurrence.
Conclusions:
- Partner stalking may not be a unique or independent predictor of IPV recurrence.
- Its predictive utility is often encompassed by other, more comprehensive risk factors.
- Findings suggest a need to ground IPV risk assessment practices in robust empirical evidence.
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