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Aviation as an Emerging Urban Air Quality Challenge in Megacities
Junheng Yan1, Jingran Zhang2,3, Ruoxi Wu1
1School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Environmental Science & Technology
|July 21, 2026
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Atmospheric Chemistry
- Transportation Studies
Background:
- China's civil aviation market is rapidly expanding.
- Reducing aviation emissions (CO2, NOx, PM) is a significant environmental challenge.
- Urban air quality is increasingly impacted by transportation-related pollution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project aviation activity and emissions across Chinese cities through 2035.
- To analyze the spatial redistribution of aviation pollution.
- To identify aviation as an emerging urban air quality concern.
Main Methods:
- Developed a city-resolved projection framework.
- Linked air travel demand with urban socioeconomic data, fleet turnover, and route operations.
- Utilized atmospheric simulations to assess pollution impacts.
Main Results:
- Aviation NOx and PM emissions are projected to increase by 65-124% and 59-149% respectively by 2035.
- Medium-sized cities will experience rapid growth in aviation emissions, doubling route-level emissions.
- New airports will contribute significantly to NOx emissions; aviation NOx may exceed road transport emissions in megacities.
- Aviation-attributed PM2.5 and O3 could reach up to 9% and 14% of ambient concentrations in urban areas by 2030.
Conclusions:
- Despite improvements, aviation emissions will rise substantially.
- Aviation is becoming a major source of urban air pollution, especially NOx.
- City-targeted mitigation strategies are crucial to address this emerging challenge.
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