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Global and Regional Trends of Pediatric Enteric Infections, 1990-2021: Rising Modeled Burden of Invasive
Wensi Fan1, Kai Wang2, Tingting Tan1
1Department of Critical Care Medicine, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
Insights
Global enteric infections in children show mixed trends. While diarrheal diseases and typhoid fever declined, invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella infections increased globally, particularly in high-income regions, necessitating enhanced surveillance.
Area of Science:
- Global health
- Infectious diseases epidemiology
- Pediatric infectious diseases
Background:
- Enteric infections pose a significant global health burden, especially in children.
- Understanding incidence trends of diarrheal diseases (DD), typhoid/paratyphoid fever (TP), and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) is crucial for public health interventions.
- Previous studies often lack a pediatric-specific focus and direct comparison between these enteric pathogens.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess global and regional incidence trends of DD, TP, and iNTS in children aged 0-14 years from 1990 to 2021.
- To characterize temporal, regional, and socioeconomic patterns of these infections.
- To contrast pediatric-specific iNTS trends with those of DD and TP.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study for enteric infection incidence.
- Analyzed age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs).
- Examined correlations between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and ASIRs to identify socioeconomic patterns.
Main Results:
- Globally, DD and TP incidence declined, while iNTS incidence increased by 45.14% from 1990 to 2021.
- The global AAPC for iNTS was 0.951%, with the highest increases observed in high-SDI regions, Western Europe, high-income Asia Pacific, and North America.
- Countries like the UK showed significant iNTS AAPC increases, whereas regions with historically high iNTS burden, such as Western sub-Saharan Africa, exhibited declining trends.
Conclusions:
- Despite overall declines in DD and TP, iNTS shows concerning modeled increases globally and in high-income areas among children.
- These pediatric-specific findings contrast with previous all-age analyses and highlight regional disparities.
- The rise in iNTS in high-income regions warrants urgent attention, including enhanced surveillance, serovar identification, and antimicrobial resistance monitoring.
Abstract:
This study assessed global and regional incidence trends of three major enteric infections in children aged 0-14 years from 1990 to 2021. Data on diarrheal diseases (DD), typhoid and paratyphoid fever (TP), and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), and correlations between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and ASIRs were analyzed to characterize temporal, regional, and socioeconomic patterns. From 1990 to 2021, DD and TP declined globally, whereas iNTS showed an overall increasing trend. Globally, iNTS cases increased from 245,607 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]: 174,385-328,774) in 1990-356,475 (95% UI: 248,066-484,385) in 2021, representing a 45.14% increase. The global AAPC of iNTS was 0.951% (95% CI: 0.763-1.140). Among SDI regions, the high-SDI region had the highest AAPC (0.733%, 95% CI: 0.390-1.078). Among GBD regions, Western Europe had the highest AAPC (2.719%), followed by high-income Asia Pacific (1.941%) and high-income North America (1.353%). At the country level, the UK had the highest AAPC (4.857%, 95% CI: 4.348-5.368). In contrast, regions with high absolute iNTS burden, such as Western sub-Saharan Africa (AAPC: -0.0399%) and Nigeria (AAPC: -0.4849%), showed declining trends. Compared with previous all-age analyses, this study provides a pediatric-specific assessment of enteric infections in children aged 0-14 years and explicitly contrasts iNTS trends with DD and TP. Although DD and TP declined substantially, iNTS showed modeled increases globally and in several high-income regions. These findings should be interpreted with caution because GBD estimates depend on data availability, diagnostic capacity, and modeling assumptions. The modeled increases in high-income regions warrant enhanced surveillance, serovar and antimicrobial resistance monitoring, and further investigation.
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