Development and validation of a nomogram prediction model for postoperative complications in elderly patients with...

To identify the risk factors associated with postoperative complications in elderly patients with endometrial cancer and to develop a nomogram model for individualized risk assessment.

This retrospective study included 150 elderly patients who underwent surgical treatment for endometrial cancer at Baoding No.1 Central Hospital between January 2022 to October 2025. Patients were divided into a complication group(n=46) and a non-complication group(n=104) based on the occurrence of postoperative complications. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors. A nomogram model was constructed and validated accordingly.

Postoperative complications occurred in 30.67%(46/150) of patients, while 69.33%(104/150) experienced no complications. Statistically significant differences were observed between the complication and non-complication groups in age(t= 3.021), body mass index(BMI)(t= 4.653), presence of diabetes(χ²= 6.322), duration of operation(DoO)(t= 5.181), and delayed postoperative ambulation (DPA)(χ² = 5.771) (all p< 0.05). Multivariate analysis identified age (odds ratio[OR] = 3.058), BMI(OR= 2.151), diabetes(OR= 1.865), DoO(OR= 2.677), and DPA(OR= 2.371) as independent risk factors(all p< 0.05). A nomogram incorporating these five variables demonstrated excellent predictive performance, with a sensitivity of 89.64%, a specificity of 77.92%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) of 0.887(95% confidence interval: 0.833-0.906), indicating high accuracy and clinical utility.

Age, BMI, diabetes, DoO, and DPA are significant risk factors for postoperative complications in elderly patients with endometrial cancer. The constructed nomogram provides a reliable and practical tool for the early identification of high-risk patients and may facilitate the development of targeted preventive strategies in clinical practice.