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Published on: November 6, 2018
Robust Solar Radiation Modification Strategy for Achieving Temperature Targets
Guo-Liang Zheng1,2,3,4, Jian-Yu Wu1,2,3,4, Tong Zhang1,2,3,4
1School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Summary
This study introduces a robust solar radiation modification (SRM) framework to meet temperature targets despite uncertainties. The framework balances cooling risks with deployment costs for effective climate change mitigation.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Economics
- Decision Theory
Background:
- Solar radiation modification (SRM) offers potential cooling but faces uncertainties in effectiveness.
- Achieving precise global temperature targets with SRM is challenged by unknown cooling outcomes and climate sensitivity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a robust decision framework for SRM to reliably achieve temperature targets.
- To embed the min-max regret (MMR) rule into an integrated assessment model for robust SRM deployment.
Main Methods:
- Integrated assessment modeling incorporating the min-max regret (MMR) decision rule.
- Evaluation of SRM strategies under uncertainties in cooling efficiency, SRM-related damages, and climate sensitivity.
Main Results:
- SRM policies optimized for worst-case cooling scenarios reduce temperature-target failure but increase welfare losses due to over-deployment.
- The MMR-based SRM strategy shows a phased deployment: restrained before mid-century, then accelerated.
Conclusions:
- A robust framework is essential to balance the risk of temperature-target failure against the economic costs of over-deploying SRM.
- The proposed MMR-based strategy provides a robust approach to SRM deployment under persistent climate uncertainties.
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