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Climate change impacts on European electricity demand and supply until 2100
Franziska Schöniger1,2, Gustav Resch1,2, Demet Suna1
1AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Center for Energy, Giefinggasse 4, 1210 Vienna, Austria.
Iscience
|July 24, 2026
Summary
Climate change impacts European electricity systems. The SECURES-Energy dataset reveals significant shifts in energy demand and supply, with rising cooling needs and falling heating demands, affecting renewable energy generation.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Energy Systems Analysis
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Renewable energy systems are vulnerable to climate change due to their weather dependency.
- Accurate spatiotemporal climate data is crucial for effective energy system modeling.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present SECURES-Energy, an open-access dataset for European electricity demand and supply.
- To provide data for modeling climate change impacts on energy systems from 1981 to 2100.
Main Methods:
- Utilized ERA5 reanalysis for historical data (1981-2100).
- Employed two EURO-CORDEX scenarios (RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5) for future projections.
- Included data on solar PV, wind (onshore/offshore), hydropower, and electricity demand (heating, cooling, mobility).
Main Results:
- No consistent trends observed for solar PV and hydropower generation across Europe.
- Offshore wind generation shows a decline, projected between -4% to -9% by 2100.
- Electricity demand shifts significantly: cooling demand increases sharply (+80% to +317%), while heating demand decreases (-19% to -40%).
Conclusions:
- Climate change is projected to cause substantial shifts in European electricity demand and supply.
- The SECURES-Energy dataset provides critical insights for adapting energy systems to future climate conditions.
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