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High-resolution simulations reveal positive global warming feedback from Pacific low clouds
Sheide Chammas1, Qing Wang1, Tapio Schneider1,2
1Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA.
Science Advances
|July 24, 2026
Summary
Marine low cloud feedbacks are crucial for climate projections. This study reveals that while surface warming alone enhances cloud feedbacks, rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations lead to a significantly stronger, nonlinear radiative response, impacting climate sensitivity.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Physics
- Oceanography
Background:
- Accurate climate projections rely on understanding marine low-level cloud feedbacks.
- Uncertainty in these feedbacks is a major limitation in current climate models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To differentiate the effects of sea surface warming from direct carbon dioxide (CO2) impacts on marine low clouds.
- To investigate the nonlinear interactions between warming and CO2 concentrations on cloud radiative responses.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 7083 high-resolution simulations of tropical Pacific low clouds.
- Separated the radiative impacts of sea surface warming and direct CO2 effects.
- Analyzed changes in boundary layer properties, cloud fraction, and liquid water content.
Main Results:
- Surface warming alone induces a positive low-cloud feedback, increasing liquid water content and decreasing cloud fraction.
- A strong nonlinear interaction emerges under quadrupled CO2, significantly strengthening the total cloud radiative response.
- Rapid adjustments to high CO2 counteract warming-induced cloud thickening, leading to reduced cloud fraction not offset by increased brightness.
Conclusions:
- Climate sensitivity is more state-dependent than previously assumed.
- The interplay between warming and CO2 concentrations critically influences marine cloud feedbacks.
- High-resolution simulations are vital for capturing complex cloud-aerosol-radiation interactions.
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