Agroforestry protects arable crops from climate shock during critical early-season phenological stages

Climate change poses significant threats to European agricultural production, with increasing frequency and severity of adverse weather events impacting crop yields. Agroforestry, the integration of woody elements into agricultural systems, is recognized as a vital agroecological approach for both climate change mitigation and adaptation, yet key mechanistic and long-term performance questions remain unresolved. This study utilized the mechanistic Hi-sAFe model to simulate 100 years (2001-2100) of silvoarable agroforestry performance at Wakelyns farm in southeastern England, focusing on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and pea (Pisum sativum) yields under intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) and very high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emissions scenarios. The research assessed yield stability, underlying microclimatic and phenological mechanisms, and long-term land-use efficiency (land equivalent ratio). This study demonstrates for the first time that agroforestry functions as a climate shock absorber by protecting crops during a critical early-season phenological window, preventing catastrophic yield failures under climate change scenarios. These protective effects were mechanistically linked to microclimatic modification, likely shade, provided by newly emerged walnut (Juglans regia) leaves during the early stages of crop flowering and grain filling, rather than during peak summer heat. While overall yield stability assessed statistically was not significantly enhanced, the mitigation of extreme downside risk represents a profound benefit for farm resilience. Analysis of land equivalent ratio revealed a substantial initial productivity lag, with consistent land equivalent ratio > 1 achieved only after 80 years for wheat and 40 years for pea, highlighting economic adoption barriers but also the potential for optimized system design and adaptive management to accelerate productivity gains. Overall, these results identify a previously unreported mechanistic and temporal basis for agroforestry's capacity to buffer temperate arable crops against climate-induced yield shocks.