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Updated: Aug 6, 2026

Pharmacologic Induction of Epidermal Melanin and Protection Against Sunburn in a Humanized Mouse Model
Published on: September 7, 2013
Global patterns of melanoma, burden attributable to ultraviolet radiation exposure, and projections to 2050 across
Jiyeon Oh1,2, Soeun Kim1,3, Seung Ha Hwang1,4,5,6
1Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Background:
Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is a well-established modifiable risk factor for malignant melanoma, yet global estimates of its attributable burden remain limited.
Objectives:
To provide up-to-date global estimates of the melanoma burden and quantify the contribution of UVR.
Methods:
We examined melanoma burden in 2022, the most recent ten-year trends, and projected estimates for 2050 by sex, age, and Human Development Index (HDI) using GLOBOCAN data, CI5plus, and the World Health Organization Mortality Databases. As a secondary analysis, population attributable fractions for UVR exposure were calculated for 2022 and 2050, using sex-specific reference populations with low exposure, incorporating demographic changes in the projections.
Results:
In 2022, an estimated 330,000 new melanoma cases were reported, with ∼88% attributable to UVR using the fifth percentile reference. Incidence, overall and UVR-attributable, was highest in high-HDI countries, especially Oceania and Northern Europe, while mortality-to-incidence ratios were highest in low-HDI settings. By 2050, UVR-attributable cases are projected to rise, with the steepest growth in low- and medium-HDI settings.
Limitations:
Models are subject to uncertainties in cancer registration, especially in low-HDI regions.
Conclusion:
Melanoma remains largely UVR-attributable, with substantial regional disparities. The projected increase in UVR-attributable melanoma burden in lower-HDI settings underscores the urgent need for region-specific prevention strategies.
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