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Pathogen Forecast Model Version 1.0: A Process-based Five-Day Beach Advisory Forecast System for the San
Falk Feddersen1, M S Spydell1, Akanksha Gupta1
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, United States.
Environmental Science & Technology
|July 27, 2026
Summary
A new Pathogen Forecast Model (PFM) provides daily 5-day illness risk forecasts for beachgoers in the San Diego/Tijuana region. This tool uses hydrodynamic modeling to predict water quality, improving public health decisions.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Public health
- Oceanography
Background:
- Untreated wastewater in the San Diego/Tijuana coastal region causes significant water quality issues.
- Current Enterococcus sampling offers same-day data but lacks predictive capabilities for beach management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce the Pathogen Forecast Model (PFM) V1.0, a novel system for daily 5-day water quality and swimmer illness risk forecasting.
- To develop a web dashboard for disseminating these forecasts to the public and stakeholders.
Main Methods:
- PFM V1.0 utilizes a hydrodynamic model incorporating forecasted waves, winds, currents, and river flow.
- The model simulates a Norovirus tracer concentration (C) with a constant decay rate.
- Forecasted tracer concentrations are correlated with observed Enterococcus levels (E) to assess predictive accuracy.
Main Results:
- PFM accurately forecasts tides and waves, with moderate skill in predicting shelf currents.
- Forecasted tracer concentration (C) and observed Enterococcus (E) showed moderate log-correlation (≈0.5) for 1- and 5-day forecasts.
- The model achieved nearly 80% accuracy in classifying advisory exceedances, with high sensitivity and lower specificity.
Conclusions:
- PFM is the first forecast model to integrate estuarine, surfzone, and shelf dynamics for water quality prediction.
- The model serves as a valuable public health tool, offering improved decision-making capabilities for coastal water management.
- Continuous improvements are planned for PFM to further enhance its accuracy and utility.
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