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Published on: August 25, 2014
Analysis of Risk Factors for High versus Low HIV Exposure in Neonates and Development of a Predictive Nomogram Model
Li Li1,2, JinXiu Lin1,2, XinXin Huang2,3
1Department of Obstetrics, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.
Infection and Drug Resistance
|July 27, 2026
Summary
This study identified key prenatal factors predicting high neonatal HIV exposure risk. A nomogram model was developed to assess this risk, aiding in early intervention for HIV-exposed infants.
Area of Science:
- Obstetrics and Gynecology
- Infectious Diseases
- Neonatal Care
Background:
- Neonatal HIV exposure remains a significant public health concern.
- Accurate risk assessment is crucial for timely intervention and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify prenatal risk factors associated with high-risk HIV exposure in neonates.
- To develop and validate a nomogram prediction model for neonatal HIV exposure risk.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 928 HIV-exposed neonates.
- Multivariate logistic regression to identify independent predictors of high HIV exposure.
- Development and internal validation of a nomogram using bootstrap resampling.
Main Results:
- Maternal ethnicity, education, pre-pregnancy HIV diagnosis, gestational age at first prenatal visit, and number of antenatal visits were independent predictors.
- The nomogram demonstrated high discriminative ability with a C-index of 0.954.
- Calibration curve showed good agreement between predicted and observed high-exposure probabilities.
Conclusions:
- A validated nomogram can effectively predict neonatal HIV exposure risk.
- Early screening and regular prenatal care for HIV-positive pregnant women are vital for reducing perinatal HIV transmission.
