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Published on: January 28, 2020
Predictors and Prognostic Significance of Cardiac Damage Progression in Non-Severe Aortic Stenosis
Benjamin Mothibe Bussmann1,2, Nicholas Johnson1, Nishta Jankee Ramjee1
1Oxford Heart Centre, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Headley Way, Oxford, OX3 9DU, UK.
Insights
Cardiac damage is common in early aortic stenosis and progresses over time, driven by comorbidities. This progression independently predicts mortality in patients with non-severe aortic stenosis.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Cardiovascular Research
- Clinical Medicine
Background:
- Cardiac damage (CD) is prevalent in aortic stenosis (AS) and predicts adverse outcomes.
- The natural history and progression drivers of CD in early AS are not well understood.
- This study investigates CD progression in patients with non-severe AS.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify predictors of cardiac damage progression in non-severe aortic stenosis.
- To determine the prognostic significance of cardiac damage progression.
- To understand the natural history of cardiac damage in early stages of aortic stenosis.
Main Methods:
- Single-center cohort study with longitudinal follow-up.
- Evaluation of cardiac damage presence and progression using serial echocardiography.
- Inclusion of patients with mild or moderate aortic stenosis at baseline.
Main Results:
- 75% of 1751 patients had baseline cardiac damage; advanced stages (3-4) increased from 24% to 30% over 2.1 years.
- Comorbidities, atrial fibrillation, and left atrial dilation predicted advanced CD progression, not AS severity.
- CD progression was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (aHR 1.35).
Conclusions:
- Cardiac damage is common and progresses in non-severe AS.
- Comorbidities and myocardial remodeling drive CD progression.
- CD progression is an independent predictor of mortality in non-severe AS.
Background:
Cardiac damage (CD) is prevalent across the spectrum of aortic stenosis (AS) and is a strong predictor of adverse outcomes. The natural history of CD in early AS and drivers of its progression, are poorly defined. We aimed to identify predictors and the prognostic significance of CD progression in patients with non-severe AS.
Methods:
This was a single centre cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Patients with mild or moderate AS at baseline and over serial echocardiographic follow-up were evaluated for the presence and progression of CD over time.
Results:
1751 patients were included. At baseline, CD was present in 1320 (75%), categorized as stage 1 in 231 (13%), stage 2 in 672 (38%), stage 3 in 109 (6%) and stage 4 in 308 (18%). Over a median follow-up of 2.1 [Q1-Q3 1.1-3.6] years, the prevalence of advanced-stage (stages 3 and 4) CD increased from 24% to 30%. Factors associated with progression to advanced-stage CD included comorbidity burden (adjusted OR [aOR] 1.23 per additional comorbidity; 95% CI: 1.10-1.38; p < 0.001) and the presence of atrial fibrillation (aOR 3.23; 95% CI: 1.15-9.07, p = 0.024) or left atrial dilation (aOR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.11-2.16, p = 0.010)], but not AS severity. Progression of CD was independently associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.35; 95% CI: 1.07-170; p = 0.012).
Conclusions:
In non-severe AS, CD is common and frequently progresses over time. CD progression appears to be driven by comorbidities and pre-existing myocardial remodelling and is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality.
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