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Climate Change May Expand Geographic Distribution of Asian Butterflies Despite Climatic Niche Contraction
Ehsan Rahimi1, Chuleui Jung1,2
1Agricultural Research Institute, Gyeongkuk National University, Andong 36729, Republic of Korea.
Insects
|July 27, 2026
Summary
Butterfly populations face climate change impacts, with many species potentially expanding their ranges despite some contractions. This adaptability suggests resilience, though actual shifts depend on various environmental factors.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and evolutionary biology
- Climate change biology
- Conservation science
Background:
- Butterflies are sensitive indicators of environmental change.
- Climate change poses significant threats to biodiversity, altering species distributions.
- Understanding niche dynamics is crucial for predicting species responses to global warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the impact of climate change on butterfly species' geographic ranges in Asia.
- To quantify niche dynamics, including stability, expansion, and abandonment, under different emissions scenarios.
- To assess the potential resilience and adaptability of butterfly populations to future climate conditions.
Main Methods:
- Species distribution modeling using the MaxEnt algorithm for 200 butterfly species.
- Habitat suitability mapping under current and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585).
- Analysis of niche dynamics by projecting realized niches onto environmental principal component spaces.
Main Results:
- Significant habitat expansion projected for most species under both moderate and high emissions scenarios by 2070.
- Under high emissions (SSP585), average habitat increase is 55%, with only 13% average decrease for a few species.
- Niche stability is projected at 63% under SSP585, with expansion averaging 12% and unfilling/abandonment around 24%.
Conclusions:
- Butterflies exhibit considerable ecological flexibility, with potential for range expansion and adaptation to new environments.
- Projected niche unfilling and abandonment suggest butterflies may shift to novel habitats, enhancing resilience.
- While climate suitability is key, actual butterfly range shifts will be influenced by non-climatic factors.
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