Trends and Projected Burden of HIV/AIDS in Kazakhstan, 2010-2030: A Comparative Analysis Using GBD 2023 Estimates

HIV/AIDS remains a major global public health challenge, with persistent regional disparities in burden and progress toward the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. This study assessed temporal trends in the HIV/AIDS burden in Kazakhstan, compared them with Central Asia and global patterns, and projected trends through 2030.

We conducted a population-level analysis using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data, examining age-standardized rates (per 100,000) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 2010 to 2023. Trends were quantified using percent change and average annual percentage change, with projections based on log-linear models.

Between 2010 and 2023, prevalence in Kazakhstan increased by 332.1% and incidence by 111.0%, contrasting with the decline in global incidence (-24.7%). Mortality decreased (-32.7%), along with DALYs (-28.8%) and YLLs (-37.1%), while YLDs increased by 135.5%, indicating a shift toward a chronic disease burden. In 2023, Kazakhstan had a lower overall burden than global estimates but showed steeper increases in incidence and prevalence. Age-specific analyses indicated the largest increases among adults aged 30-69 years. Under current trend assumptions, projections suggest continued growth in prevalence and incidence, with modest mortality declines through 2030, though these trajectories do not account for future changes in prevention coverage, treatment access, or policy.

Kazakhstan is undergoing a transition toward a chronic HIV epidemic, underscoring the need to strengthen prevention, expand PrEP and testing coverage, and address structural barriers to achieve epidemic control.