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ICE arrests, 2015-2026: Variation in targeting, method, and geography
Chloe N East1, Caitlin Patler2, Elizabeth Cox1
1Department of Economics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.
Summary
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests increased during the Trump presidencies, but the proportion of those arrested with criminal convictions significantly decreased. This trend occurred despite shifts in ICE tactics and varied geographically.
Area of Science:
- Public Policy
- Criminology
- Sociology
Background:
- Public discourse often frames Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests as essential for public safety, targeting individuals who commit crimes.
- Understanding the actual demographics and criminal history of arrested individuals is crucial for evaluating enforcement effectiveness and public safety claims.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze administrative data on all US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests from October 2015 to March 2026.
- To investigate the relationship between ICE arrest numbers, the criminal conviction rates of arrested individuals, and shifts in enforcement tactics.
- To examine geographic variations in ICE enforcement methods and outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of administrative data encompassing 1.6 million ICE arrests over an 11-year period.
- Statistical decomposition to assess the impact of arrest volume and enforcement tactics on conviction rates.
- Examination of geographic heterogeneity in arrest patterns and conviction rates.
Main Results:
- ICE arrests surged at the beginning of both Trump presidencies.
- The proportion of arrested individuals with criminal convictions declined significantly, particularly in 2025.
- Even when controlling for specific ICE tactics, the share of arrested individuals with criminal convictions decreased as overall arrests increased.
- Geographic variations in ICE enforcement strategies were substantial, despite a general decrease in conviction rates across most areas.
Conclusions:
- The reality of ICE enforcement, characterized by declining conviction rates among arrestees, diverges from the public narrative of focusing solely on public safety through removal of criminals.
- Shifting ICE tactics partially explain the trends, but do not fully account for the decline in conviction rates as arrests rose.
- Geographic disparities in enforcement methods persist, highlighting the complex and varied nature of immigration enforcement across the US.
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