ICE arrests, 2015-2026: Variation in targeting, method, and geography

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Public Policy
• Sociology

Background:

• Public discourse suggests Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests primarily target individuals with criminal convictions for public safety.
• There is a need to examine the reality of immigration enforcement against this public narrative.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze administrative data on ICE arrests from October 2015 to March 2026.
• To assess the relationship between ICE arrest numbers, the criminal conviction rates of arrested individuals, and enforcement tactics.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of administrative data for all 1.6 million US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests.
• Decomposition of arrest data to examine trends in criminal convictions and the impact of enforcement tactics.

Main Results:

• ICE arrests surged at the beginning of both Trump presidencies.
• The percentage of arrested individuals with criminal convictions declined significantly, particularly in 2025.
• Even when controlling for specific ICE tactics, the conviction rate decreased as arrests increased.
• Geographic variations in ICE enforcement methods were observed despite a general decline in conviction rates.

Conclusions:

• The reality of ICE enforcement diverges from the public safety narrative.
• Shifting ICE tactics and other factors contributed to a lower proportion of convicted individuals being arrested over time.
• Findings offer critical evidence for understanding immigration policy and enforcement during this period.