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Establishment of a Risk Prediction Model for Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation After Liver Transplantation: A
Xuejiao Zhou1, Jing Hu1, Zeliang Xu1
1Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University, Chongqing, China.
Journal of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Sciences
|July 28, 2026
Summary
This study identified key risk factors for prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) after liver transplantation (LT). A validated nomogram helps predict PMV risk in LT patients, aiding early interventions.
Area of Science:
- Hepatology
- Critical Care Medicine
- Transplant Surgery
Background:
- Prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is a significant complication after liver transplantation (LT).
- Identifying predictors of PMV is crucial for optimizing patient care and resource allocation.
- Current methods for predicting PMV risk in LT recipients are limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify independent risk factors associated with PMV following LT.
- To develop and internally validate a predictive nomogram for PMV in LT recipients.
- To enhance clinical decision-making for pre- and post-transplant management.
Main Methods:
- A multicenter retrospective cohort study included 746 LT recipients.
- Data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression.
- A predictive nomogram was constructed and validated using training and validation sets.
Main Results:
- The incidence of PMV was 21.6%.
- Independent predictors of PMV included ASA scores ≥3, pre-LT mechanical ventilation, MELD score, albumin levels, and anhepatic phase.
- The nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance with a C-index of 0.780 in the training set and 0.731 in the validation set.
Conclusions:
- The developed nomogram provides an individualized risk assessment for PMV in LT patients.
- This tool can assist clinicians in planning early interventions and optimizing resource allocation.
- The nomogram's validation supports its potential utility in clinical practice.
