Impacts of Global Climate Change on Potential Habitat Distribution and Range Shifts of Semi-Subterranean Rodents

As integral components of ecosystems, rodents exhibit high sensitivity to environmental fluctuations. As a typical semi-subterranean rodent, the burrowing and foraging behaviors of the mole vole (Ellobius tancrei) profoundly impact local microhabitat structure and vegetation succession. Given its extensive distribution range, investigating the geographical distribution of the mole vole under climate change is critical for understanding its population dynamics and spatial patterns. To explore the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of this species, we utilized an ensemble model based on 395 occurrence records and 38 environmental variables. We predicted its potential geographical distribution under current (1970-2000) and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) across three future periods (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) and further analyzed the variation trends and centroid migration directions of its global potential distribution. The results revealed the following: (1) Elevation (Dem) and temperature annual range (Bio7) were the dominant environmental factors driving the potential distribution of the mole vole, followed by precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), mean diurnal range (Bio2), annual mean temperature (Bio1), base saturation (BSAT), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), calcium carbonate content (TCARBON_EQ), and available water capacity (AWC). (2) Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable habitats were mainly concentrated in Eurasia, particularly in Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, and Russia. (3) Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats showed simultaneous expansion and contraction, with expansion consistently exceeding contraction across all scenarios and periods, especially under SSP585 in the late 21st century. (4) Relative to the current period, the suitable-habitat centroid shifted northeastward under SSP126, but northwestward under SSP245 and SSP585. This study reveals the dynamic spatial shifts of the mole vole driven by climate change, not only providing crucial scientific support for early spatial warning and precise prevention of agricultural and pastoral rodent damage, but also laying a theoretical foundation for understanding the ecological adaptation mechanisms of subterranean rodents and mitigating potential cross-regional dispersal risks.