Multiplexity and Disruption Propagation in Global Container Liner Shipping Networks: From the Perspective of...

Global container liner shipping networks (GCLSNs) underpin world trade, yet their organization is increasingly reshaped by geopolitical fragmentation. Existing studies often model GCLSNs as single-layer networks, overlooking how carriers' geopolitical affiliations structure both connectivity and disruption risk. This study constructs a weighted carrier-geopolitical multiplex network in which layers are defined by carriers' geopolitical affiliations and coupled through shared port calls. Structural analysis reveals pronounced asymmetry in layer size, cohesion, and inter-layer dependence, with overlap concentrated in a limited set of shared hubs. Using the Red Sea crisis as an empirical stress-test scenario, we develop a load-capacity propagation model, incorporating intra-layer load redistribution, rerouting to substitute shared hubs, and inter-layer resource squeeze at same-port layer copies. Results show that direct losses concentrate in corridor-exposed layers, while indirect losses propagate selectively through bridge hubs, especially Singapore, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Port Klang. Sensitivity analysis indicates nonlinear amplification when low tolerance, strong inter-layer squeeze, and elevated rerouting pressure coincide. These findings show that multiplexity does not imply resilience by itself; cross-layer connectivity buffers disruption only when spare capacity is distributed but amplifies vulnerability when it converges on a narrow set of shared hubs. The paper contributes a carrier-geopolitical perspective to shipping network analysis and a dynamic framework for studying disruption propagation in complex logistics systems.