Modeling and Simulating Complex Conflict Management Using Reaction Networks

Area of Science:

• Socio-political science
• Complex systems modeling
• Conflict studies

Background:

• Protracted conflicts often arise from overlapping socio-political organizations (bands, tribes, chiefdoms, states) competing for resources.
• Existing models struggle to capture the dynamics of these coexisting organizational forms.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model protracted conflict as a reaction network of coexisting socio-political organizations.
• To analyze conflict dynamics using chemical organization principles and stoichiometric methods.
• To identify conflict attractors and inform intervention strategies.

Main Methods:

• Developed a reaction network model inspired by Service's typology of social organizations.
• Utilized chemical organization concepts, moving from kinetic to parameter-free stoichiometric approaches.
• Modeled the Lake Chad Basin as a case study for a mixed chiefdom-state configuration.

Main Results:

• Identified a structural bias toward conflict, with transitions into conflict regimes being richer than transitions out.
• Demonstrated that a dual chiefdom-state configuration acts as a conflict attractor.
• Showed that conflict-peace loops are self-sustaining within documented organizational forms.

Conclusions:

• Conflict management should focus on redirecting internal organizational mechanisms (e.g., elite-surplus redistribution) rather than attempting state change.
• Intervention design must consider the specific timescales of these self-sustaining organizations.
• Understanding the structural dynamics of coexisting organizations is key to resolving protracted conflicts.