Structural Characteristics and Controllability Analysis of China's Provincial-Industrial Embodied Carbon Emission...

In the context of global climate change and China's "Dual Carbon" target, the misallocation of carbon emission reduction responsibilities and low regulatory efficiency urgently require analysis and resolution. Based on China's 2020 MRIO and carbon emission inventory data, this study integrates multi-regional input-output models and complex network theory to construct an embodied carbon emission (ECE) transfer network at the provincial-industrial level and analyze its structural characteristics. Drawing on complex network control theory, this paper proposes a heuristic node-ranking strategy to identify driver nodes for full controllability of the ECE transfer network and compare its regulatory effect with other topological indicators. The findings reveal: (1) At the provincial level, embodied carbon emissions show a distinct transfer pattern from central provinces to southeast coastal or economically developed regions. Jiangxi, Anhui, Shandong, etc., are net outflow provinces, while Jiangsu, Beijing, Guangdong, etc., are net inflow provinces. (2) At the industrial level, secondary industry is the main net inflow industry, and primary industry is the main net outflow industry. The secondary industries in Guangdong, Henan, etc., have high betweenness centrality, acting as "hub" nodes for carbon transmission. Community detection shows that the largest community in China is centered on the secondary and tertiary industries of Jiangsu, Henan, Guangdong, etc., and the network overall exhibits small-world characteristics. (3) Compared with other control strategies, the designed algorithm achieves the best control effect: it realizes full network controllability with the minimum number of control nodes (26), and the shortest reachable paths from the control node set to non-control nodes, meaning policy signals imposed on control nodes transmit at the fastest speed. (4) Among the control node set, 22 key control nodes are mostly secondary and tertiary industries, located at the center of the transfer network and ranking high in net outflow or inflow, belonging to the core nodes of the ECE transfer network. This study provides a scientific basis and methodological support for clarifying the attribution of carbon transfer responsibilities and formulating differentiated collaborative regulatory policies. This paper establishes a qualitative matching mechanism between network control inputs and carbon tax, emission quotas and industrial regulation to connect controllability theory and practical carbon governance.