Beyond Relapses: A Multimodal Biomarker Framework for Progression Independent of Relapse Activity and Smouldering...

Progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) and smouldering multiple sclerosis (MS) represent major unmet challenges in contemporary MS care. Disability may accumulate independently of clinical relapses, driven in part by chronic compartmentalised inflammation behind a relatively intact blood-brain barrier and incompletely captured by conventional monitoring tools. This narrative review synthesises evidence across four complementary biomarker domains for detecting smouldering MS and PIRA: advanced MRI (paramagnetic rim lesions [PRLs], slowly expanding lesions, deep grey matter atrophy, quantitative susceptibility mapping); fluid biomarkers (serum glial fibrillary acidic protein [sGFAP], serum neurofilament light chain [sNfL]); retinal optical coherence tomography (ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thinning); and digital health metrics (wearable accelerometry, digital Symbol Digit Modalities Test). In a single prospective cohort, combined elevation of sGFAP and sNfL conferred a 4.71-fold increased hazard for PIRA (HR 4.71; 95% CI 2.05-9.77); independent data suggest sGFAP may carry selectivity for progression beyond sNfL, although this remains to be confirmed. No single domain sufficiently characterises smouldering pathology. We therefore propose a hypothesis-generating Multimodal PIRA Score (MPS) as a conceptual validation scaffold intended to structure-rather than inform-prospective multicentre evaluation against a long-horizon disability endpoint. Harmonisation of acquisition protocols, reference ranges, and digital phenotyping algorithms remains a prerequisite.