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Construction of a Risk Prediction Model of Swallowing Dysfunction During Recovery from Acute Ischemic Stroke
Xinyu Zhang1, Huaqiang Li1, Xiangwen Hao2
1School of Health Preservation and Rehabilitation, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 610072, China.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|July 28, 2026
Summary
This study identified higher NIHSS scores and lower triglyceride levels as key risk factors for post-stroke dysphagia. A preliminary model using these factors shows potential for predicting swallowing difficulties in stroke patients.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Gastroenterology
- Medical Informatics
Background:
- Post-stroke dysphagia (PSD) is a common complication of acute ischemic stroke.
- Early identification of PSD risk is crucial for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify risk factors for post-stroke dysphagia during the recovery phase of acute ischemic stroke.
- To develop a preliminary predictive model for bedside swallowing assessment in stroke patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 209 acute ischemic stroke patients.
- Swallowing function assessed via water swallowing test.
- Binary logistic regression and nomogram used for predictive model construction.
Main Results:
- Higher NIHSS score and lower triglyceride level identified as independent risk factors for dysphagia (p < 0.05).
- The predictive model (NIHSS + TG) showed modest discrimination (AUCs ~0.68).
- The model provided incremental reclassification value over NIHSS alone.
Conclusions:
- A preliminary model using NIHSS and triglyceride levels can help estimate PSD risk in cooperative patients.
- The model requires external validation for clinical application.
- Further research is needed to refine PSD prediction in stroke recovery.