Beyond Current Borders: Modeling the Climate-Mediated Invasion of Fusarium incarnatum Into New Agricultural Frontiers

Climate change is altering the global distribution of plant diseases, significantly impacting agricultural sustainability and food security. Fusarium incarnatum, an economically significant fungal pathogen responsible for substantial crop losses, poses a serious threat, yet its distribution dynamics under shifting climatic conditions are inadequately understood. This research utilized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to evaluate the present and future global distribution of F. incarnatum under climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data (n = 112) were acquired from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) using stringent spatial filtering. Five bioclimatic variables were identified via correlation analysis and significance evaluation: Annual Mean Temperature (bio1), Mean Diurnal Range (bio2), Isothermality (bio3), Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (bio10), and Precipitation of the Driest Month (bio14). Future projections for 2050 and 2070 were generated using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5, based on ensemble means from three Global Circulation Models. The MaxEnt model demonstrated outstanding predictive performance (AUC = 0.88, TSS = 0.80), with Annual Mean Temperature identified as the principal limiting factor. Current suitable habitats are located in temperate and subtropical regions across all continents, with consensus zones between MaxEnt and Bioclim models indicating the most reliable forecasts. Future projections reveal a concerning northward range expansion, with extensive areas of Canada, northern Europe, and Siberia transitioning from unsuitable to medium-high suitability by 2050-2070. The RCP 8.5 scenario projected a more extensive expansion than RCP 2.6, underscoring the critical importance of climate mitigation. Factor analysis indicated temperature-related constraints in northern latitudes and moisture restrictions in semi-arid zones. These findings provide critical insights for developing early warning systems, targeted surveillance, and adaptive management strategies to mitigate the agricultural risks associated with the climate-driven expansion of F. incarnatum, thereby supporting global food security planning.