Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using the National Clinical Database Risk Calculator
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Published on: September 30, 2021
Mariko Tsukagoshi1, Kenichiro Araki1, Norio Kubo1
1Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of General Surgical Science Gunma University Graduate School of Medicine Maebashi Gunma Japan.
Aim:
To determine the value of the National Clinical Database (NCD) risk calculator for predicting surgical outcomes and long-term prognosis in patients undergoing resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
Methods:
We retrospectively analyzed data from 210 patients with HCC who underwent initial hepatic resection between January 2016 and December 2022. We calculated predicted incidence of surgery-related mortality (predicted mortality rate) using the NCD risk calculator. We assessed the relationship between predicted mortality rate and clinicopathological factors, including their relationship with long-term prognosis.
Results:
A predicted mortality rate of ≥ 3% significantly correlated with worse recurrence-free survival and overall survival (OS), with a high-risk group showing increased blood loss, longer hospital stays, and higher severe complication rates. Multivariate analysis identified predicted mortality rate of ≥ 3% as an independent prognostic indicator for poor OS, alongside male sex and microvascular invasion.
Conclusion:
The NCD risk calculator showed potential to predict not only short-term outcomes but also long-term prognosis in patients with HCC undergoing resection. The NCD risk calculator may be a valuable complementary tool for decision-making about liver resection in patients with HCC.