Critical points of multiple defenses and system resilience reconstruction: a QCA configuration analysis and...

This study analyzes the complex causal mechanisms of maritime accidents in China's inland waterways. To capture conjunctural causation and equifinality, it employs Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), integrating the "Swiss Cheese Model," HFACS, and STAMP into a multidimensional framework of human, vessel, environmental, and management factors. Analysis of 33 real-world cases reveals that maritime safety is characterized by multiple conjunctural causation and causal asymmetry. Serious accidents are not triggered by single necessary conditions, though baseline compliance (e.g., proper routing and draft) appears as a trivial necessity. The study identifies six sufficient pathways to serious accidents, most notably "Resource-Constrained Nighttime Operational Failure"-where inadequate manning and nighttime conditions couple to overwhelm compliant operations-and "Systemic Safety Failure Driven by Economic Motives," where overloading and manpower shortages driven by cost-cutting organizational decisions make accidents nearly inevitable. Contrasted with non-serious configurations highlighting "safety buffers," findings show that while stressors like nighttime navigation multiply risk, robust internal compliance and resource redundancy effectively absorb them. Ultimately, the study advocates for a maritime governance paradigm shift from reactive response toward precision intervention and resilience reconstruction, providing a theoretical foundation for modern, adaptive maritime safety systems.