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Published on: September 16, 2015
Parenthood decisions in uncertain times: Experimental evidence from four countries
Arnstein Aassve1,2, Letizia Mencarini1,2, Chen Peng1,2
1Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy.
Summary
Global fertility rates are declining due to complex factors. Beyond economics, macro-level uncertainties like climate change and political instability significantly impact decisions about having children.
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Demography
- Environmental Studies
Background:
- Global fertility rates are declining, with traditional economic and gender theories insufficient to explain current trends.
- Emerging global uncertainties, including climate change, economic crises, and political instability, may influence reproductive decisions.
- Cross-national variations in fertility trajectories and sociopolitical challenges necessitate a broader understanding of influencing factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how macrolevel uncertainties influence fertility intentions across four diverse nations: Italy, Argentina, the United States, and Germany.
- To examine the interplay between household, policy, and macrolevel conditions on individuals' decisions regarding childbearing.
- To assess the relative impact of economic factors versus broader societal stability on fertility perceptions.
Main Methods:
- A cross-national study employing a conjoint experiment design.
- Participants evaluated hypothetical scenarios of childbearing under varied household, policy, and macrolevel conditions.
- Data collected from Italy, Argentina, the United States, and Germany to capture distinct national contexts.
Main Results:
- Household income was the strongest predictor of fertility intentions across all countries, followed by homeownership and childcare.
- Perceptions of macrolevel stability (climate, economy, democracy, peace) significantly influenced fertility intentions, comparable to homeownership and childcare.
- Macroeconomic stability and climate change were most impactful in Argentina; geopolitical conflict had less effect in the United States.
Conclusions:
- Individual decisions about childbearing are shaped not only by immediate circumstances but also by expectations of future societal stability.
- Macrolevel uncertainties, including climate change and political stability, play a substantial role in contemporary fertility decline.
- Future research and policy must integrate macrolevel uncertainty to adequately explain and address declining fertility rates.
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