Coastal flooding at predictable hours
Joris G W Beemster1, Stefan A Talke2, Ivan D Haigh3,4
1Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, Droevendaalsesteeg, Wageningen, PB, The Netherlands. joris.beemster@wur.nl.
Nature Communications
|July 28, 2026
Summary
Coastal flooding is predictable at specific times due to tidal patterns. Understanding these predictable flood times aids in emergency planning and coastal adaptation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Coastal geomorphology
- Oceanography
- Climate science
Background:
- Coastal flooding is often viewed as unpredictable.
- Tidal cycles are a major driver of coastal inundation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the temporal predictability of coastal flooding.
- To identify the drivers of predictable flood timing in coastal systems.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of tide-gauge records from the US and UK.
- Quantification of the intraday timing of coastal flood events.
- Examination of tidal constituent phase-locking with the solar day.
Main Results:
- Recurrent coastal flooding occurs at predictable times, especially in tidally dominated systems.
- Flood event timing clusters around specific hours, linked to tidal constituents and solar day alignment.
- Non-tidal variability weakens flood timing predictability.
Conclusions:
- Tidal phase-locking creates predictable flood timing, extending to significant inundation events.
- This predictability offers opportunities for anticipatory risk communication and coastal adaptation planning.
- Understanding temporal flood patterns is crucial for effective coastal management.
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