[Predictors of early, middle and late treatment dropout in forensic care]

In forensic mental health care, clients who terminate treatment prematurely are at increased risk of recidivism. Most drop out during the initial treatment phase. Understanding factors associated with the timing of dropout may help clinicians adjust interventions in time and maximize treatment benefit.

To examine the extent to which the central eight criminogenic risk factors predict the timing of dropout (early, middle, or late) among adults receiving outpatient forensic treatment.

A retrospective file study was conducted among 1,110 adult clients who discontinued treatment prematurely. The central eight risk factors were assessed with the RAF-GGZ. Dropout subgroups were categorized based on treatment duration as early (0-4 months), middle (4-6 months), and late (> 6 months) dropout.

More severe family or relationship problems at the start of treatment were the only risk factor significantly associated with an increased likelihood of late dropout. No significant effects were found for the other central eight risk factors.

The central eight risk factors appear to have limited value for predicting the timing of dropout among forensic outpatients. Future research should focus on responsivity factors and treatment process variables to better understand and prevent premature termination.