Global Trends in Key Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors: A Joinpoint Analysis Across WHO Regions (1990-2022)

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Global Health

Background:

• Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remain a leading cause of global mortality.
• Understanding temporal trends in modifiable CVD risk factors is crucial for effective public health interventions.
• Major risk factors include hypertension, tobacco use, elevated cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and insufficient physical activity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze temporal trends and quantify changes in the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease risk factors across World Health Organization (WHO) regions.
• To identify regional variations in the progression of hypertension, tobacco use, elevated cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and insufficient physical activity from 1990 to 2022.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the WHO Global Health Observatory, encompassing health indicators from over 190 countries.
• Extracted prevalence estimates for key modifiable CVD risk factors between 1990 and 2022.
• Employed joinpoint regression analyses to calculate annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals to assess trend shifts.

Main Results:

• Hypertension prevalence declined globally, with significant reductions in Europe, but a slight increase in the Western Pacific.
• Tobacco use decreased across all regions, most notably in South-East Asia, with prevalence dropping from 54.1% to 26.6%.
• Diabetes prevalence increased universally, with the highest rise in the Eastern Mediterranean, while insufficient physical activity also rose in most regions, except Africa.

Conclusions:

• Global trends indicate improvements in hypertension, tobacco use, and cholesterol levels.
• Conversely, there are concerning increases in diabetes prevalence and insufficient physical activity worldwide.
• Region-specific strategies are essential to address modifiable CVD risk factors and promote sustainable, system-level changes.