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Predictive Modeling of Healthcare Workers' Priorities of the WHO 2030 Key Activities for Snakebite Prevention and
Eric Nyarko1, Iddrisu Abugbil Atubiga1, Fafa Shalom Tchorly1,2
1Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, College of Basic and Applied Sciences, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, Ghana, ug.edu.gh.
Abstract:
Snakebite is a serious public health issue that causes a significant amount of morbidity and mortality. This has led the World Health Organization (WHO) to develop a roadmap to reduce snakebite envenoming (SBE) by half by 2030. This study predicted the activities healthcare workers consider most important among the 24 WHO SBE roadmap activities for preventing and controlling snakebites. The research involved healthcare workers and took place in two poor and mostly rural districts in the Eastern Region of Ghana. The study used traditional MaxDiff and five machine learning (ML) models to analyze the data. Healthcare workers prioritized "Making safe, effective antivenoms available, accessible, and affordable to all" as the most important activity, with a utility estimate (UE) of 0.8256 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7300 to 0.9213). This was followed by "Effective first aid care and ambulance transport" (UE = 0.4348, 95% CI: 0.3266 to 0.5430), "Coordinated data management and analysis" (UE = 0.3744, 95% CI: 0.2353 to 0.5134), and "Promoting advocacy, effective communication, and productive engagement" (UE = 0.3630, 95% CI: 0.2528 to 0.4732). Using choice experiments and ML models has helped reveal healthcare workers' priorities regarding the WHO's SBE roadmap activities. This approach gives a clear view of local opinions on key WHO activities, which is crucial for tackling the snakebite problem. By using this information in the broader health system, we can improve health outcomes and enhance the quality of life for snakebite patients in Ghana and other low- and middle-income countries.
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