Predicting Drowning Mortality Risk Using Machine Learning Models; A Retrospective Cohort Study

Particularly in highly tourist-active coastal locations, drowning is still a serious international public health concern. This study investigates the predictive value of machine learning approaches in estimating drowning-related mortality risk.

This retrospective cohort study analyzed drowning incident data from the Emergency Management and Medical Urgency Center of Guilan Province, covering the period from 2018 to 2023. The data were preprocessed, missing values imputed using the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm, and balanced using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). Three models including logistic regression, decision tree, and naïve Bayes were evaluated in predicting the risk of mortality following drowning and sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of each model was calculated and compared.

A total of 600 consecutive cases meeting the eligibility criteria were extracted for analysis, forming the final dataset. Logistic regression exhibited the highest predictive power, with an accuracy of 51.67% and an area under the curve (AUC) of 60.02%. The most influential variables in drowning-related mortality prediction were drowning location, drowning year, gender, and age. High-risk areas posed a 33-fold higher mortality risk than safe locations (p < 0.001). Age and gender were not statistically significant predictors of fatal drowning.

Given its superior interpretability and predictive capability, logistic regression was identified as the most effective model for assessing drowning mortality risk. Preventative measures should focus on identifying high-risk areas, installing warning signs, implementing lifeguard teams, educating tourists, and enforcing strict coastal safety regulations to mitigate drowning fatalities.