Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield
Yiwei Jian1,2, Xuhui Wang1, Jonas Jägermeyr3,4,5
1Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Science Advances
|July 29, 2026
Summary
High temperatures significantly reduce rice yields, especially during the reproductive stage. Global climate models underestimate these impacts, necessitating adjustments for accurate food security assessments.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Change Research
- Crop Physiology
Background:
- Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security, with complex and varied impacts on rice yields.
- Accurate assessments of warming effects on rice are crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the impact of high-temperature exposure on rice yield using a global dataset of field-warming experiments.
- To compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature variations in experimental data versus current global crop models.
Main Methods:
- Compiled a global dataset of 214 field-warming experiments.
- Analyzed stage-specific crop responses to temperature variations.
- Compared experimental findings with simulations from global gridded crop models.
Main Results:
- Exposure to high (30-35°C) and extreme (>35°C) temperatures are primary drivers of rice yield loss, mainly via reduced harvest index.
- One additional day above 30°C during the reproductive stage decreases rice yields by 1.1% to 1.8%.
- Current crop models underestimate this sensitivity, simulating only 0.1% to 1.3% yield loss per exposure day.
Conclusions:
- Adjusting for model biases, global rice yield losses are estimated to be 8.1% lower under 1°C warming, double previous estimates.
- South and Southeast Asia are identified as the most vulnerable regions to warming-induced rice yield reductions.
- High-temperature exposure is a critical factor influencing rice yield under climate change.
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