State of the global tuberculosis epidemic: burden, progress towards WHO End TB Strategy targets and systemic...

Mycobacterium tuberculosis remains the leading cause of death from a single infectious pathogen globally despite decades of effective chemotherapy. In 2024, an estimated 10·7 million people developed tuberculosis, including approximately 620 000 people living with HIV (PLHIV), and tuberculosis caused an estimated 1·23 million deaths overall, including approximately 150 000 deaths among PLHIV. Men accounted for more than half of the cases, and children represented a substantial burden, reflecting ongoing transmission and diagnostic gaps. Approximately a quarter of the world's population has been infected with M tuberculosis, with immunological evidence of previous or current infection. This population includes groups at increased risk of progression to tuberculosis disease, particularly those with recent infection, HIV, undernutrition, young age, or other clinical and social vulnerabilities. Following 3 years of COVID-19-related setbacks, global tuberculosis incidence declined modestly (1%) from 2023 to 2024 but remains higher than in 2020 and far off-track to meet the 2025 WHO End TB Strategy milestones. Case detection improved to 8·3 million notifications (78% of estimated incident cases), supported by expanded molecular diagnostics; however, prevalence surveys continue to reveal substantial proportions of bacteriologically confirmed but asymptomatic tuberculosis, highlighting persistent transmission and missed diagnoses. 30 high-burden countries accounted for 87% of cases, led by India, Indonesia, the Philippines, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Bangladesh. M tuberculosis-HIV co-infection remains a major driver of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Drug-resistant tuberculosis threatens progress: of 390 000 estimated multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases in 2024, only 42% initiated treatment, although treatment success improved to 71%. Tuberculosis-preventive treatment reached 5·3 million people, including 58% of PLHIV and 25% of eligible household contacts, well below global targets. Persistent undernutrition, poverty, HIV, diabetes, smoking, alcohol use, air pollution, migration, and conflict continue to shape tuberculosis epidemiology. With financing at only 27% of global targets, accelerated prevention, proactive case finding, social protection, and sustained political commitment are essential to eliminate tuberculosis.