Related Experiment Videos
Modified Glasgow prognostic score and APRI predict ICU admission in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
Nazan Cinislioğlu1, Ayten Yanık1
1Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Erzurum Regional Training and Research Hospital, Erzurum, Turkey.
Insights
The Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) and Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) effectively predict intensive care unit (ICU) needs in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) patients. These scores aid in early risk stratification for CCHF cases requiring critical care.
Area of Science:
- Infectious Diseases
- Clinical Medicine
- Prognostic Biomarkers
Background:
- Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) poses a significant public health threat.
- Effective prognostic tools are crucial for managing CCHF patients and anticipating intensive care unit (ICU) needs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the prognostic value of the Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) and the Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI).
- To determine the predictive accuracy of mGPS and APRI for ICU admission in CCHF patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 181 CCHF patients diagnosed between January 2023 and January 2026.
- Calculation of mGPS and APRI scores.
- Logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to assess associations with ICU requirement.
Main Results:
- mGPS score of 2 increased ICU admission likelihood by 10-fold (OR=10.041).
- Each unit increase in APRI correlated with a 3.9% rise in ICU risk (OR=1.039).
- mGPS (AUC=0.738) and APRI (AUC=0.715) demonstrated strong discriminative power for predicting ICU admission.
Conclusions:
- mGPS and APRI are independent and significant prognostic indicators for ICU requirement in CCHF.
- These scores offer a simple and practical method for early risk stratification in CCHF patients.
- Utilizing mGPS and APRI can enhance clinical decision-making for critical care allocation.
Background:
This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) and the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) in predicting intensive care unit (ICU) requirement among patients diagnosed with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF).
Methods:
Data from 181 patients diagnosed with CCHF between January 2023 and January 2026 were retrospectively analyzed. Demographic characteristics, laboratory parameters, and clinical outcomes were recorded. mGPS and APRI scores were calculated, and their associations with ICU requirement were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and logistic regression models. Model fit was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.
Results:
Univariate analysis revealed significant associations between intensive care unit (ICU) requirement and variables including age, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), C-reactive protein (CRP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), international normalized ratio (INR), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), platelet count, Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), and Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI). In multivariate analysis, patients with an mGPS score of 2 had a 10.04-fold higher likelihood of ICU admission compared to those with an mGPS of 0 (OR=10.041; 95% CI: 1.187-84.936; p = 0.034). Each unit increase in APRI was associated with a 3.9% increase in ICU risk (OR=1.039; 95% CI: 1.002-1.078; p = 0.040). ROC analysis demonstrated the highest discriminative power for mGPS (AUC=0.738), followed by APRI (AUC=0.715) and CRP (AUC=0.699). The optimal APRI cut-off was 11.5, yielding 85% sensitivity and 72% specificity.
Conclusion:
mGPS and APRI were identified as independent and significant prognostic indicators of ICU requirement in patients with CCHF. Their simple and practical structure supports their use in early risk stratification, especially in clinical settings where rapid prognostic assessment is critical.