Distributional Diagnosis and Calibration with Negative Controls for Outcome-wide Real-world Evidence

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) have been linked to heterogeneous, potentially pleiotropic effects across organ systems, motivating outcome-wide comparative risk profiling in real-world data. A central challenge in such analyses is residual bias that remains after adjustment for observed confounders, which can distort effect estimates and mis-calibrate uncertainty. We present distributional diagnosis and calibration (DC), which uses panels of negative control outcomes (NCOs) to diagnose residual bias and calibrate uncertainty. DC evaluates null behavior via p -value uniformity and empirical coverage across NCOs, and uses the empirical distribution of NCO effect estimates to calibrate confidence intervals for prespecified primary outcomes. DC is modular: it can wrap around commonly used causal inference methods and operates directly on summary statistics, supporting collaborative research under data-sharing constraints. Using electronic health records from a large U.S. clinical research network (152.7 million patients), we compared GLP-1RAs with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors across 15 prespecified outcomes spanning cardiovascular, mental health, and genitourinary domains using four causal estimators. Across outcomes and methods, DC diagnostics revealed substantial and method-dependent residual systematic error. DC calibration attenuated systematic error signals observed in negative controls and yielded more stable, better-calibrated estimates for clinical outcomes, supporting DC as a practical strategy to strengthen the credibility of outcome-wide real-world CER.

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