Pancreatic cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2023: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2023

Pancreatic cancer (PC) poses a significant public health challenge in China because of high mortality and increasing incidence, necessitating an analysis of its burden from 1990 to 2023 to inform future prevention.

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we estimated absolute numbers, age-standardized rates (ASRs), and age-stratified crude rates. Joinpoint regression was employed to calculate average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). We quantified the burden attributable to specific risk factors and conducted a segmented analysis to compare trends between the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty interval (UI).

In 2023, China was estimated to have 118,381 incident PC cases (95% UI 103,773-135,339), 114,949 deaths (95% UI 101,214-131,619), 102,845 prevalent cases (95% UI 89,758-117,757), and 2,765,626 DALYs (95% UI 2,455,494-3,137,032). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) remained stable. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) increased slightly (AAPC 0.38%, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.70). The burden was consistently higher in males than in females. Age-specific analysis highlighted rising incidence rates in both 15-49 years and ≥75 years age groups. In 2023, high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) accounted for a higher attributable burden than smoking. Pandemic-era sensitivity analysis suggested a possible change in the direction of ASIR and ASMR trends after 2019, but the observed post-2019 increases were not statistically significant and require further validation.

The increasing absolute burden was mainly associated with population aging, while risk-attributable analysis suggested a growing contribution of metabolic factors. Prevention strategies should integrate metabolic management to tackle the dual challenges of an aging society and emerging risks in younger people.