From isolated openings to streaks: a sequential observational study of loot box openings in livestreamed gaming

Loot boxes have become a major public health concern because they combine chance-based reward structures, repeated purchasing opportunities, and widespread exposure in digital gaming environments, including publicly accessible livestreams. The present study examined how loot box openings were organized, sustained, and terminated in livestreamed contexts, with particular attention to the sequential structure of opening behavior and the verbalizations accompanying it. Using an exploratory-to-analytic sequential observational design with integrated quantitative and qualitative components, we built a broader observational database spanning approximately 65 h and 28 min of streamed material across exploratory and analytic phases. The analyses reported here were based on 13 publicly accessible livestreams from Twitch and YouTube, totaling approximately 27 h and 16 min of video material in the main analytic phase. Across these streams, 490 loot box openings were coded at the level of streams, opening episodes, and individual openings. Results showed that loot box openings were organized predominantly as multi-opening streaks rather than isolated events, with 93.1% of coded openings occurring within streaks. The formation of streaks was more strongly associated with visible monetization-related interface cues, particularly temporary offers and virtual currency, than with broad contextual trigger categories. Once a streak had begun, continuation was the dominant pattern and was not strongly explained by reward rarity, visible affective valence, or near-miss events alone, suggesting a momentum-like sequential process. By contrast, termination appeared more closely associated with disruptions in the ongoing flow of the sequence, including more behaviorally marked moments and some reward outcome categories. Qualitative findings further indicated that streamer verbalizations functioned primarily as evaluative, interpretive, and performative accompaniments to opening activity rather than as reliable mechanisms of self-interruption. Taken together, these findings support a process-based account of livestreamed loot box openings and highlight the importance of sequential organization, monetization salience, and public verbal framing for understanding their potential public health relevance.