Unveiling the potential geographic range of Lepidium meyenii (Maca) and its climate-driven shifts in a changing...

Global warming has induced pronounced phenological shifts and community degradation in alpine herbaceous plants. However, their spatiotemporal distributions, future responses to climate change, and the underlying environmental drivers remain poorly understood. Here, we focus on Lepidium meyenii, a medicinal herb native to the high-altitude regions of the Andes Mountains in South America, which may face habitat contraction and potential population decline in the future due to changing environments. We integrate species distribution and environmental data with a random forest model to project the potential suitable habitats of L. meyenii across time and identify their key environmental drivers. We find that the most significant environmental variables that impact the distribution of L. meyenii include elevation, temperature annual range (bio7), and mean diurnal range (bio2). The species generally favors high-elevation environments characterized by high bio2 and low bio7 values. The Andes Mountains have consistently remained a stably suitable habitat throughout the study period, whereas climate change has reshaped the potential suitability patterns in other regions. From the Last Glacial Maximum to the present, the potential suitable habitat for L. meyenii shows a declining trend, with the most pronounced contraction occurring on the Tibetan Plateau. However, under future climate scenarios, this trend is projected to shift. With increasing emission scenarios, environmental suitability in the southern Tibetan Plateau is expected to increase, and potential suitable habitat is projected to expand, suggesting that this region could become an important area for the cultivation and sustainable utilization of L. meyenii. This study provides valuable insights into the distribution patterns of alpine herbaceous plants in response to climate change and contributes to biodiversity conservation efforts and the sustainable management of medicinal plants as biological resources.