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Assessing the agreement between microsimulated and register-based kin counts in Sweden
Liliana P Calderón-Bernal1,2, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez1,3, Martin Kolk2,4,5
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
Population Studies
|July 30, 2026
Summary
Microsimulation models closely estimate average kin numbers and family structures compared to population registers. This method is useful for reconstructing kinship data when only population rates are available.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Computational Social Science
Background:
- Estimating kinship networks is data-intensive, relying on empirical data or demographic models.
- Empirical data face limitations like availability and bias, while demographic models often lack population heterogeneity.
- Existing models minimally account for family similarity and multi-partner fertility.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the agreement between SOCSIM microsimulation outputs and Swedish population registers for kin counts.
- To evaluate microsimulation's accuracy in representing kinship structures across different birth cohorts.
Main Methods:
- Comparison of kin counts (grandparents to grandchildren) from SOCSIM microsimulation.
- Validation against Swedish population registers for cohorts born 1915-2017.
- Analysis of mean kin numbers and parity distributions.
Main Results:
- Microsimulation closely approximates mean kin numbers and reflects parity distributions.
- Underestimation of kin for recent cohorts, but improved accuracy for earlier cohorts with missing links.
- SOCSIM demonstrates utility in reconstructing kinship from population-level rates.
Conclusions:
- Microsimulation is a valuable tool for kinship reconstruction, especially with limited empirical data.
- The study supports the use of microsimulation for historical and projected kinship analyses.
- Findings underscore the utility of demographic models in understanding complex kinship networks.
