Potential Distribution of Invasive Insect Ferrisia virgata (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) Under Climate Change with...

The striped mealybug, Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell), is a destructive invasive pest infesting more than 234 genera across 83 families and established in over 122 countries, posing serious threats to agriculture and forestry. To clarify the drivers governing the distribution and future dispersal risk, this study employed a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to conduct its global potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios, incorporating climate and topographic variables. The established models demonstrated strong reliability and accuracy, with an average AUC of 0.903, a mean TSS of 0.705, and only 17.08% of the total suitable habitats classified as extrapolation areas. The temperature-related variables (85.2%) were the dominant variables shaping the current potential distribution model, followed by precipitation-related variables (13.5%), while the contribution of elevation contributed only 1.3%. The current potential distribution of this pest mainly concentrated in North America, South America, Africa, Oceania, and Asia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats of F. virgata exhibited divergent invasion risks, and low-emission climate pathways could constrain the pest's long-term suitable ranges. We put forward three targeted strategies for prevention and control, existing-area governance, forward-looking early warning, and cross-regional coordinated prevention. Our findings clarify the key role of thermal conditions in driving the dispersal of F. virgata and propose targeted control strategies, thereby offering a scientific basis for the early warning and precise management of congeneric invasive insects.