Processed-meat-attributable ischemic stroke burden, 1990-2023: A Global Burden of Disease 2023 analysis

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study provides standardized estimates of fatal and non-fatal health loss by cause, risk, age, sex, location, and year. Processed meat intake is a modifiable dietary exposure within the GBD comparative risk assessment framework, but its contribution to ischemic stroke burden has not been characterized using GBD 2023 estimates. We assessed annual trends from 1990 to 2023.

We extracted annual GBD 2023 estimates of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and corresponding age-standardized rates. Log-linear and Joinpoint regression, age- and sex-specific analyses, descriptive age-period-cohort visualization, and three-factor decomposition were used.

In 2023, the attributable burden comprised 2023 deaths, 48,159 DALYs, 11,413 YLDs, and 36,746 YLLs. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 population were 0.09 for deaths, 2.09 for DALYs, 0.50 for YLDs, and 1.59 for YLLs, with consistently higher values in males. From 1990 to 2023, absolute burden increased, whereas age-standardized death and YLL rates declined modestly and the YLD rate increased. Population aging and population growth accounted for the increase in deaths, partly offset by favorable epidemiological change.

Processed-meat-attributable ischemic stroke represents a small but measurable dietary-risk-related burden. Risk reduction should be integrated with sodium reduction, healthier protein substitution, and comprehensive vascular prevention rather than considered a stand-alone strategy.